Turn a trend intoa testable signal.
The job of Stage 01 is to turn a vague trend into one precise claim about changing customer behaviour. You are defining what to investigate, not deciding whether to act.
- Start with
- A trend, phrase or repeated pattern
- Add to the brief
- Signal statement and uncertainty
What, exactly, is changing in what people say, choose or do?
A signal is an observable change, not a fashionable label. At this stage you are not checking the strength of the evidence, scoring the brand fit or planning a campaign. You are turning something you noticed into one clear statement that Stage 02 can verify.
Record what caught your attention.
Start with the post, phrase, customer question or repeated pattern that made you pause. Record it as a lead to investigate, not as proof that a market exists.
Remove the trend label.
Labels make weak observations sound settled. Replace the name with a sentence about a person, a context and something they are saying, choosing or doing.
Keep observation separate from explanation.
Write only what appears to be changing. Do not assume yet that it is large, lasting, commercially valuable or caused by a particular trend. Those judgements belong in the next stages.
Add the first section to the brief.
Record the behaviour, the people and context, where you first noticed it and the uncertainty that remains. Stage 02 will use this section to find and judge independent evidence.
Signal and uncertainty
Complete this section now. The next stage uses it instead of starting again.
- What first caught our attention:A customer asked what she could send to a friend having a difficult week.
- The behaviour that may be changing:Small comfort products may be shifting from celebration gifts to quiet care rituals.
- The people and context involved:People buying for an overwhelmed friend when celebratory language feels wrong.
- Where we first noticed it:One customer request and several care-package posts worth tracing separately.
- The uncertainty that Stage 02 must check:Whether independent sources and buying behaviour support more than a one-off request.
Brief built,stage by stage.
This is the same Opportunity Brief the Machine drafts for each matched opportunity. At this point in the Method, 1 of its 5 sections is complete.
Quieter care gifting
A possible shift from celebration-led gifts towards practical support for difficult weeks.
- Behaviour observed
- Support gifting is becoming quieter and more specific. Buyers are choosing small evening rituals for friends who need care without a celebratory occasion.
- What remains uncertain
- Whether independent sources and buying behaviour support more than a one-off request.
Supporting signals
Pending confidenceEach stage completes the next part of the Opportunity Brief.
A trend, phrase or repeated pattern
Describe the changing customer behaviour precisely enough to investigate, without deciding whether it is a good opportunity yet.
Signal statement and uncertainty
The signal card from Stage 01
Check whether independent sources, persistence and buying behaviour support the signal, then choose a defensible testing window.
Evidence, confidence and timing basis
The verified signal from Stage 02
Compare the opportunity with your products, customers, positioning and practical constraints.
Fit score, audience and opportunity size
The best-fitting opportunity from Stage 03
Put the smallest useful amount of time and money at risk while measuring real customer behaviour.
Offer, channels, test and success rules
The result and rules from Stage 04
Compare the result with the rules and choose whether to continue, stop or learn again.
Results and a continue, stop or learn-again decision